Roundtable with Dara Massicot and Thomas de Waal 

On the 8th of October, SCEEUS hosted a roundtable discussion with Dara Massicot and Thomas de Waal on the military situation in the Black Sea. Through her work as a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dara Massicot focuses on defense and security issues within Russia and Eurasia. Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region. The discussion was moderated by Fredrik Löjdquist, Director of SCEEUS. 

The discussion centered around the current military situation in the Black Sea and its implications for Ukraine’s security, trade and economy. A key aspect addressed was whether the current dynamics of both Russia and Ukraine hitting each other’s critical infrastructure could be sustained over the long term. In the discussions the question was raised whether Ukraine is currently more vulnerable to attacks on critical infrastructure and key economic assets than Russia, suggesting that in a situation of continuous attrition on infrastructure, other sectors of Ukrainian society would suffer significant damage first, forcing Ukraine to adjust operations and strategy. The prospects of energy and grain truces between Russia and Ukraine were also discussed.