Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has transformed the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, a region at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The three states in the region—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—are all grappling with how to navigate this new reality.

Armenia’s relationship with Russia has recently unravelled in dramatic fashion, prompting Yerevan to attempt a pivot towards the West. Nevertheless, Russia’s shadow continues to loom large over the country. What could the EU offer Armenia in this vulnerable position? Can Armenia implement the necessary reforms to embark on a path towards EU integration?

Azerbaijan plays a pivotal role in the region’s dynamics. It has capitalised on its energy exports to strengthen ties with Europe, offering an alternative to Russian energy. However, its assertive foreign policy poses significant challenges, raising the question: can the EU balance its strategic engagement with Azerbaijan while promoting democratic values and human rights?

Georgia is deeply polarised following a parliamentary election in October 2024, which international observers reported was marred by intimidation and interference. The Georgian government’s subsequent decision to pause its EU membership efforts has triggered a political crisis, with widespread protests. The country’s democratic backsliding and its government’s closer ties with Russia present the EU with considerable challenges. How should the EU approach Georgia in the wake of these elections? What are the broader implications of EU action—or inaction—towards Georgia?

SCEEUS’s activities in the South Caucasus focus on the development trajectories of the states in the region, including political and economic reforms, as well as the West’s role and interests in the region amid an era of strategic competition. Recent publications have examined how the EU can support and cooperate with Armenia in its efforts to enhance security and resilience, as well as Georgia’s choice between pursuing a European path or aligning with Russia.

Experts

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