Quick Impressions: Washington, D.C.

By Klara Lindström

SCEEUS recently visited Washington, D.C. and met with experts, academics, diplomats, politicians and officials from across the political spectrum. Here are some quick impressions. 

Democrats are expected to do well in the midterms. That would not necessarily translate into greater support for Ukraine. 

Most interlocutors expect the Democrats to do well in the midterm elections on 3 November. However, greater Democratic political influence would not automatically translate into greater support for Ukraine. There is a risk that the Trump administration could blame Ukraine for any electoral defeat, further straining an already difficult US-Ukrainian relationship. Restrictions on Trump’s room for manoeuvre at home may increase his appetite for international deals to build his legacy, to the detriment of European and global security. 

Moreover, Democratic support for Ukraine should not be taken for granted. Democratic socialists focus on Gaza and pay less attention to Europe. Humanitarian narratives, isolationist instincts and pacifist tendencies are present in the left-leaning wing of the Democratic Party. This translates into calls to end the bloodshed at all costs, without fully grasping the nature of Russian military aggression and imperialism. The Nordic countries are well placed to initiate dialogue with the Democratic Party and explain their positions on Russia, Ukraine and European security. 

There is no unified European voice in D.C. There could be a stronger Nordic one. 

While several EU member states are keen to maintain their bilateral ties with the United States, European messaging towards the US could be better synchronised. EU member states could coordinate more closely, even if the US administration favours bilateral channels. European representatives could also help Ukrainians gain access to all parts of the political spectrum by initiating meetings in minilateral formats. 

The Nordic countries can position themselves as protectors of the northern and eastern flanks, including the Arctic and the High North, combining balanced rhetoric with a strong understanding of Russia. They can describe Russian objectives as continued expansion and as a long-term, structural and systemic threat extending far beyond Ukraine’s borders. They should also repeat the message that dealing with Russia is not a matter of diplomacy (the nicer you are to the Russians, the less nice they will be to you), but of deterrence (posing security dilemmas and altering Russia’s cost-benefit calculus to change its antagonistic behaviour), and discuss concrete steps in that direction. Nordic think tanks and centres of expertise could contribute by working with American counterparts across the political spectrum to organise seminars and roundtable discussions on Ukraine and Russia in D.C. 

Views on Europe range from scepticism to “burn it all down”. Europe is best off focusing on itself. 

The current US administration calls for burden-shifting in the transatlantic security relationship. At the same time, it prioritises US defence-industrial interests and wants Europeans to buy American. Arguably, the latter is at odds with the notion of Europe taking responsibility for its own security. One interlocutor in D.C. described conservative views of Europe as ranging from scepticism to “burn it all down”. Overall, however, Americans are not particularly interested in the EU. Europeans think far more about what the United States thinks of them than vice versa. 

Negative views of the EU, which run deep in conservative thinking and the MAGA movement, are unlikely to change. Yet the persistent myth that Europe is doing nothing could be dispelled by presenting data on the scale of European support for Ukraine. By strengthening its own security and proactively identifying areas of mutual interest with the United States, Europe can make it more difficult for American stakeholders to portray it as passive or failed. Finally, by pursuing cutting-edge, forward-looking cooperation with Ukraine, Europe not only strengthens its own security but also helps position Ukraine as an equal partner and security provider in the eyes of more Americans.