Quick Impressions from Tbilisi, Georgia – March 2025

As part of their broader tour of the South Caucasus, SCEEUS analysts Hugo von Essen and Jakob Hedenskog continued their journey from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Tbilisi, Georgia, between 20 and 24 March. Their visit to the Georgian capital included meetings with experts from Georgian think tank, representatives of international organisations and members of Georgian civil society organisations.

Georgia’s slide into authoritarianism under the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party has accelerated following the rigged parliamentary elections on 26 October 2024. According to one interlocutor, GD has completed its state capture, solidified by the installation of a new president on 14 December. The political system, the judiciary and prosecution services, the security apparatus and main businesses are now controlled by GD and its honorary chairman, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who remains the country’s de facto leader.

Photo: SCEEUS

Popular protests in Tbilisi, ongoing since 28 November – when Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced a four-year pause in EU accession talks – have continued, albeit on a much smaller scale. However, dissent has not vanished, and new developments could reignite larger public discontent. Moreover, resistance persists in various other forms and locations.

GD has become increasingly inward-looking. Western officials no longer visit, and Georgia has become an isolated state. Although the country was granted EU candidate status as recently as December 2023, genuine EU integration ceased long ago. The government has refused to meet democratic and rule-of-law standards, as reforms would threaten its grip on power. According to several interlocutors, GD’s primary goal is to maximize wealth, with little interest in the country’s development.

GD has now scrapped its controversial “foreign agents” law – dubbed the “Russian law” by the opposition – replacing it with legislation modelled on the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) of the 1930s. The new “American” law – copied word for word – is even stricter, targeting not only organisations but also individuals. Its penalties are also harsher, including imprisonment rather than just fines. GD’s conspiratorial narratives continue, seemingly invigorated by Trump and MAGA rhetorics, including claims about the “Global War Party” and the “deep state” allegedly attempting to drag Georgia into conflict with Russia.

Photo: SCEEUS

From the meetings, the impression was that Georgia is slipping further from the international spotlight. Few expected Georgia – or the South Caucasus as a whole – to be a priority for the Trump administration. EU member states continue to isolate the GD government while supporting Georgia’s embattled civil society. However, the EU approach remains largely passive and cautious, adopting a wait-and-see stance rather than taking serious measures to pressure GD into changing course – perhaps a reflection of the many other pressing geopolitical challenges facing the EU. As one EU member state ambassador bluntly stated: “Our interests are not that big. If you don’t want to be with us under these circumstances, we can go elsewhere.”

Only Russia seems pleased with Georgia’s trajectory. The threat of regime change has been neutralized, and for now, Moscow is content. Looking ahead, Russia might push for a railroad through Georgia to Armenia and, most importantly, a constitutional amendment to formally abandon Euro-Atlantic integration. While GD frames its policies as a pursuit of “sovereign democracy” and independence, Georgia’s more likely future is that of a Russian satellite – an outcome that may not concern Ivanishvili and his government as long as they can maintain their hold on power.