Quick Impressions from Baku, Azerbaijan – March 2025

Between 16 and 19 March 2025, SCEEUS analysts Hugo von Essen and Jakob Hedenskog visited Baku, Azerbaijan, as part of a broader tour of the South Caucasus region. Their visit included meetings with experts, government officials, and civil society representatives, and was organized in close cooperation with the Swedish Embassy and Ambassador Tobias Lorentzson.

Photo: SCEEUS

The visit took place against the backdrop of a significant and positive development: Azerbaijan and Armenia have, at long last, agreed on a draft text for the peace treaty. From a historical perspective, this marks a crucial step on the long path towards peace and normalisation. A lasting peace would bring considerable political, economic, societal and geostrategic benefits to the two foes. It could also open transit routes for regional and external actors – including the EU and Türkiye – while enabling the South Caucasus to finally develop its own voice and agency. The main loser would be Moscow, whose key leverage over both Baku and Yerevan for decades has been the instrumentalization of the unresolved conflict.

However, as many interlocutors in Baku emphasized, significant uncertainties remain. The draft text has not been made public, and it is unclear when the agreement can and will be signed and ratified. Several key issues remain unresolved, including Azerbaijan’s demand for Armenia to amend its constitution, the status of the Minsk Group, and the future of the EU Mission in Armenia along the border. Additionally, the peace treaty is just one component of a broader negotiation process that includes border demarcation and opening of transit routes.

Finalizing the treaty, therefore, represents only the first step on a long road toward lasting peace and normalisation between the two enemies and strategic rivals. Deep-seated societal distrust, historical grievances, and minimal direct contact between the populations mean that overcoming hatred and fear will take years of dedicated efforts from both sides. Encouragingly, several of the organizations the SCEEUS analysts met in Baku were engaged in projects aimed at fostering dialogue, exchange and cooperation with Armenian counterparts.

Jakob Hedenskog, SCEEUS, Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Head of the Foreign Policy Affairs Department of the Presidential Administration, Tobias Lorentzson, Swedish Ambassador to Azerbaijan, and Hugo von Essen, SCEEUS. Photo: SCEEUS

A key question moving forward is how the EU and the broader West can play a constructive and effective role in supporting the peace process. In recent years, EU-Azerbaijan relations have deteriorated, with Baku perceiving a strong pro-Armenian bias among European counterparts. This has led Azerbaijan to prioritize relations with global, non-Western partners. However, recent developments suggest a possible shift toward a more constructive engagement between the EU and Azerbaijan.

Discussions also touched on broader geopolitical developments, particularly the evolving dynamics between Ukraine, the US and Russia, and their implications for Azerbaijan and the region. Russian political gains in Ukraine could refocus Moscow’s attention on preserving and reclaiming its influence in the South Caucasus. Moreover, a potential “grand bargain” between Washington and Moscow over the heads of Ukraine and Europe – possibly heralding a new “Yalta 2.0” world – would have negative consequences for Azerbaijan as well. Having long endured in the shadow of empire, Azerbaijan’s recent tensions with Russia reflect its determination to safeguard its independence and autonomy.

Relatedly, recent US overtures towards Azerbaijan are noteworthy. Could the Trump administration be interested in brokering a quick peace “deal” success as a major foreign policy success to offset failures in its dealings with Russia? Or might Washington be exploring a strategic triad, leveraging Azerbaijan’s strong ties with Israel in countering the shared Iranian threat?

As interlocuters in Baku pointed out, the rapidly evolving global geopolitical landscape adds a significant degree of unpredictability for both the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Hugo and Jakob’s journey continues – to Tbilisi and later to Yerevan. Stay tuned for further Quick impressions from the South Caucasus!