Quick Impressions from Yerevan, Armenia – March 2025

Finishing their South Caucasus tour, SCEEUS analysts Hugo von Essen and Jakob Hedenskog visited Yerevan, Armenia, from 24 to 27 March. Their visit included meetings with government officials, parliamentarians, politicians, experts, academics and civil society organisations.

The political mood in Yerevan and the discussions revolved around a series of consequential ongoing developments, with different stakeholders and experts offering varying interpretations and assessments of their implications. The agreed-upon peace treaty text with Azerbaijan represents a significant and historic step, while also underscoring Armenia’s precarious security situation. From an Armenian perspective, the numerous remaining Azerbaijani preconditions for signing the treaty (see Quick Impressions from Baku from 20 March), along with Baku’s revisionist rhetoric on “Western Azerbaijan”, leaves little reason for optimism about peace in the near future.

The Armenian government offices. Photo: SCEEUS

Conversely, most interlocutors viewed the law passed by Armenia’s parliament on March 26 – on starting the process of accession to the EU – as an important and positive development. This legislation marks the first time Armenia has formally expressed, through law, its ambition to join the EU. It serves as a crucial signal of the current government’s intent, both to its own population and to Brussels and EU capitals. The law should also be seen in the broader context of strengthening EU-Armenia ties, exemplified by the near-finalized negotiations for the New Partnership Agenda, which aims to complement and enhance the implementation of the existing Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

However, Armenia faces numerous obstacles and challenges in pursuing its EU ambitions. Many question the government’s sincerity, given stalled reform efforts, rapidly shifting narratives, and pre-election populist tactics. Given Armenia’s deep economic dependence on and ties with Russia, it remains unclear whether the country can break free, whether it could withstand Russia’s inevitable retaliation, and whether the EU is willing and able to provide the economic diversification Armenia would need to undertake such a shift.

Additionally, Armenia’s highly insecure and hostile external environment presents further difficulties. Georgia’s rapid drift into Russia’s orbit (see Quick Impressions from Tbilisi from 25 March) and the determination of several neighbouring countries to keep the EU out of the region mean that Armenia’s bold but solitary path will likely face active countermeasures from multiple directions. Domestically, widespread political apathy, low trust in institutions and political parties, polarization, and a lack of pluralism – combined with few viable alternatives to Prime Minister Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party – raise doubts about whether popular support for the long and arduous journey toward EU integration can be sustained.

Hugo von Essen, SCEEUS, Sargis Khandanyan, Chair of standing committee on foreign relations, Patrik Svensson, Ambassador of Sweden, and Jakob Hedenskog, SCEEUS. Photo: SCEEUS

Interestingly, and related to several aspects of domestic politics, the SCEEUS visit coincided with the lead-up to local elections in Gyumri, Armenia’s second-largest city, on 30 March. Several interlocutors emphasized the significance of these elections as an indicator of the national mood and political dynamics ahead of key national elections in 2026. The elections were seen as a test of the ruling party’s popularity, the strength of pro-Russian opposition forces, and the potential of smaller, relatively new pro-European parties challenging Pashinyan.