Russia Announces the Total Withdrawal of Its Troops From Nagorno-Karabakh

On 17 April 2024, Russia announced the withdrawal of its peacekeeping forces from Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. This surprise announcement means that the troops will leave one and half years before the formal end of their mandate and comes amid crucial developments in the power balance in the South Caucasus.

What is the Context?

The Russian peacekeeping forces, comprising 1960 soldiers along with military equipment, were stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of the trilateral ceasefire statement of 9 November 2020, between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, which concluded the Second Karabakh War.

While the purpose of the peacekeeping forces partly aimed to protect the Karabakh Armenian population, the Russian soldiers took no action during Azerbaijan’s nine-month-long humanitarian blockade or when Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, resulting in the mass exodus of Armenians.

The announcement also follows early snap presidential elections in Azerbaijan held in February 2024. Some believe these elections were moved up from their originally scheduled date in 2025 to avoid coinciding with the end of the peacekeeping forces’ mandate, as Russia potentially could have used this situation to pressure or destabilize Azerbaijan.

Russia’s Changing Relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia

The surprise announcement comes amid a rapidly evolving geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus, with Azerbaijan at its focal point. During the past few years, Moscow’s position in the region has weakened, while Baku’s has strengthened, largely due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has drained resources and attention. Azerbaijan’s deepening ties with Türkiye, along with Turkish support for Azerbaijan’s geopolitical ambitions, have also been instrumental in this shift.

Russia’s diminished influence has thereby led to a reversal in the relations with Azerbaijan, where Moscow needs Baku (and Ankara) more than the other way around, in order to keep trade routes and options open and facilitate Russian access to partners beyond the region, such as Iran and India. This has led to increased trade and transit cooperation within the Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran triad, especially as Russia’s dependence on Iranian military equipment, such as Shahed drones, for its war efforts has grown.

The strengthening of Russian-Azerbaijani ties, including in the military sphere, have caused Armenia to rapidly lose faith in Russia as a defender of its interests. Instead, Armenia is striving for greater independence from Russia and closer ties with the EU and the West in general.

Meanwhile, Moscow continues to blame Yerevan for the defeat in the Second Karabakh War and the Armenian exodus from Karabakh in September 2023. Yerevan fears that Russia may be waging a hybrid war against Armenia with the purpose of installing a more pro-Russian government, by leveraging Azerbaijani pressure against Armenia and exploiting dissatisfaction among exiled Armenians from Karabakh residing in Armenia, ultimately leading to a loss of Armenian sovereignty.    

Why Withdraw the Troops?

The decision by Moscow to withdraw the peacekeeping mandate one year ahead of its expiry could have several possible reasons.

Importantly, following Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh and the subsequent exodus of Karabakh Armenians, the role of the peacekeepers became paradoxical. Based on their official function they no longer served a formal purpose, given that Azerbaijan had effectively ended the conflict, and there are now almost no Armenians left in Karabakh to protect.

However, informally, for Russia they fulfilled the same role as all other Russian military presences in post-Soviet countries like Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Central Asian countries – serving as a useful Russian instrument to pressure or influence the host government. 

Therefore, the withdrawal of peacekeeping forces is a sign of the degradation of Russian power in the South Caucasus following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine starting in February 2022. Moscow’s voluntary relinquishment of an important tool to pressure Baku is a significant development, potentially indicating that Russia has either received something in return, or has become so dependent on Azerbaijan that its hand is being forced, or a combination of both factors.

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