Ahead of the NATO summit: Three texts on Russia’s nuclear rhetorics and blackmail

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 is not only the largest and most brutal military aggression in Europe since World War II - it has also been accompanied by nuclear blackmail to intimidate Ukraine and EU and NATO countries into exercising self-deterrence. The Russian nuclear rhetoric under Putin has become increasingly irresponsible to a degree unthinkable during the second half of the cold war.

Russia’s aggression in itself and the violation of the Budapest Memorandum risks having serious negative consequences for NPT-regime.

This tactic certainly has had some initial effect, stopping and delaying military support to Ukraine from some major Western powers, but the marginal rate of return of this behaviour is declining.

What is noise and what is signal in the Russian rhetoric? What conclusions might have been drawn in Moscow? Is the strategic communication between Russia and the US working , and is the message sent also the message received? What world would we live in if Russian nuclear blackmail would be perceived as successful in Moscow?

To answer these and other questions we have asked some leading military experts to write short reports for SCEEUS. A perfect package of reports ahead of the NATO Washington summit on July 9-11, 2024.

• Decoding Russian Nuclear Rhetoric – and How NATO Should Respond by William Alberque
• Fear and Laughter at Russia’s Attempts at Nuclear Blackmail in Ukraine by Gustav C. Gressel
• The Ladder of Nuclear Escalation by Aleksandr Golts